🔮 Polly v3.1 — Whale Mirror

Polymarket whale → Kalshi V2 mirror | KXWCGAME match-for-match markets

Architecture

Source: PolymarketScan whale API (top 25 trades)
Matching: KXWCGAME series — exact match-for-match World Cup markets (3 outcomes per game: win/tie/loss)
Verification: Official FIFA 2026 World Cup schedule — confirms teams AND match date before any trade
Order type: IOC (immediate-or-cancel), max $20 per trade, integer division (no circumvention)
Safety: Past matches automatically skipped; requires both teams in same KXWCGAME event

KXWCGAME index: Builds event map from 72 World Cup events (25 open), indexes by team name
FIFA schedule: 70+ group stage match entries hardcoded with exact dates; look_up_match() validates teams + date
TEAM_ALIASES: 40+ spelling normalizations (turkey/turkiye, congo dr/DRC, etc.)
SLUG_TEAMS: 40 Polymarket slug codes (hrv, prt, copv, etc.) resolved to canonical names
Composite fallback: Non-sports whale signals matched via Kalshi cross-category markets

Check	What It Does	Status
Correct teams	FIFA schedule lookup: are these two teams playing each other?	Active
Correct date	Match date >= today? Past matches automatically skipped.	Active
Max $20	count = MAX_PER_TRADE_USD // price_cents — cannot exceed $20	Active
IOC orders	time_in_force = immediate_or_cancel — no open orders	Active
KXWCGAME match	Both teams must be in same event; event date must match schedule	Active

Date	Details
Jun 24	v3.1 GOING LIVE — FIFA schedule integration + KXWCGAME exact matching deployed
Jun 24	Steve's insight: use FIFA schedule to verify teams + dates — eliminates all fuzzy matching
Jun 24	KXWCGAME series discovered: 72 events, 25 open, 3 outcome markets per game (win/tie/loss)
Jun 24	Test run: Croatia ($536K), Portugal ($729K), England ($538K) — all correctly skipped (settled)
Jun 23	v3.0 built — entity extraction from slugs, composite fallback for non-sports
Jun 23	KILLED (v2) — fuzzy matching matched wrong markets, -$3 total damage
Jun 22	3 fills under v2: NZL vs BEL TIE 35x @ 56¢ ($58.80); Portugal wins
Jun 22	Pivoted: NOAA weather → Polymarket whale → Kalshi mirror

Date	Matches (KXWCGAME available)
Jun 24	Czechia vs Mexico, Switzerland vs Canada, Scotland vs Brazil, Haiti vs Morocco, South Africa vs South Korea
Jun 25	Turkiye vs USA, Ecuador vs Germany, Japan vs Sweden, Paraguay vs Australia
Jun 26	Egypt vs Iran, New Zealand vs Belgium, Norway vs France, Uruguay vs Spain, Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia
Jun 27	Panama vs England, Colombia vs Portugal, Croatia vs Ghana, Congo DR vs Uzbekistan, Algeria vs Austria, Jordan vs Argentina

Updated Jun 24, 2026 00:58 ET · Hobson Command Center

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